Right winner, the margin light and the total heavy: PARTLY. We said Texas 36, Mississippi State 15; Texas won 31–3. The market (Texas by 21) was off by 7 and the model (Texas by 16.5) by 11.5. Cam Coleman's 47 and 14-yard touchdown opened the scoring, Rasheem Biles had three of Texas's seven sacks, and his strip of AJ Swann became Maraad Watson's 61-yard fumble-return touchdown before the half. Mississippi State's 3 points came after a strip-sack of Arch Manning, one of five sacks Texas allowed. The two WRONG chips both went the Bulldogs' way: the Texas line against the Bulldog front, Even, lost at the line, and the kicking game, Texas slight, went to Mississippi State. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
We picked the right winner, but Texas won by more and far fewer points were scored than we said, so our prediction was PARTLY right. We wrote down Texas 36, Mississippi State 15, and Texas won 31 to 3. Cam Coleman set up and scored the first touchdown, and Texas's defense sacked Mississippi State's quarterbacks seven times and scored a touchdown on a fumble. Mississippi State scored only a field goal, after it sacked Arch Manning and forced a fumble. Our two WRONG calls both went Mississippi State's way: its defensive line beat Texas's blockers on running plays, and it had the better kicking game. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Eight of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, two PARTLY, two WRONG, and both WRONGs went Mississippi State's way: the Texas line against the Bulldog front, Even, where the backs ran 19 for 50; and special teams, Texas slight, where Pulliam outpunted Chiumento by ten yards a kick. Both Bulldog chips on the Texas offense held, and every Texas chip on the defense held bigger than printed. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 8 right, 2 half right and 2 WRONG, both in Mississippi State's favor: its defensive line won against Texas's run blocking, and its punter was much better than Texas's.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 20.5 to 21.5 points in the first five weeks were 63-3 since 2023, with a median margin of 18, and 25 of the 66 won by more than 21; the moneylines gave Texas about 90%. Texas was one of the 25, by 28.
What the history said: teams favored by about 21 points this early had won 63 games and lost 3, usually by about 18, and the odds gave Texas about a 90% chance. Texas won, by 28.
Our record so far: on the final score, 2 right, 9 partly, 3 wrong; on tells, 20 right, 19 partly, 3 wrong; on matchup edges, 72 right, 46 partly, 49 wrong. Tells are the shakiest thing we print, so read them as things to watch, not verdicts.
Margin: Texas by 28 · Line was Texas −21 at both books Monday, −20.5 Friday and Saturday · Total 34 against 50.5 · Season line, model vs. market, all fifteen graded rows: market 10, model 5 on margin; straight up market 12-3, model 11-4
Settled against the box, from the SEC's Wednesday to Friday reports as Burnt Orange Nation relayed them; no 90-minute report could be opened. Texas: EDGE Colin Simmons and EDGE Richard Wesley, out, have no stat, and Texas had seven sacks; OL Trevor Goosby, out for the season, cannot be settled from the box; WR Cam Coleman and RB Hollywood Smothers, off the report Thursday, played and did not finish; RB Derrek Cooper ran once for 5; WR Kaliq Lockett has no stat. Mississippi State: QB Kamario Taylor, out for the season, has no stat; QB AJ Swann started and QB Parker Puckett finished. No player listed out or doubtful appears in the box score. Five Texas players did not finish: Graceson Littleton, Coleman, Kade Phillips, Smothers and Ryan Wingo, severity unknown (Sarkisian via SI Texas, Oct 31).